Political Tensions Simmer Ahead Of Next Week's Budget Debate

Tensions between the ruling majority and the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party remain elevated ahead of next week's parliamentary debate on the 2024 budget, which Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia pushed back by a week to prevent the turmoil around the arrest of two convicted PiS lawmakers from dominating the discussion. As a reminder, parliament must approve the fiscal plan by the end of the month or face dissolution, with PM Donald Tusk pledging that the coalition will meet the deadline.

• The latest political unrest highlights the challenges before the new administration, which faces obstruction by hostile President and Constitutional Tribunal, while dealing with the consequences of reforms that left the legal system in a state of duality, whereby the authority of various judicial bodies is routinely contested.
• Some observers suggested that the President might challenge the 2024 budget in the Constitutional Tribunal and push for the dissolution of parliament on that basis, which the ruling majority says would not be legally viable. However, a snap election would be unlikely to bring any benefits to the current opposition.
• A new opinion poll for wp.pl showed that more than a third of respondents were blaming PiS and its leader for the legal disputes and political turmoil around the two convicted officials, while another 20% were blaming the President. By contrast, only 26% believe that PM Donald Tusk and the ruling coalition are responsible.
• Meanwhile, money.pl ran a piece citing an opinion on the revised 2024 budget adopted by the NBP, in which the central bank noted that it will no longer be able to register profit for FY2023 and transfer PLN6bn to the government. The piece cites voices from the ruling coalition accusing the NBP of misleading the government.
• With the expected tensions between the new administration and former ruling party (as well as institutions populated by its nominees) resurfacing, PiS is also at a critical juncture, trying to define itself in the new role. The party has adopted an increasingly combative rhetoric so far, setting the stage for continued turmoil.
• Against this backdrop, former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki suggested this morning that wants to run for party chairmanship in the future, after its long-time leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski retires. He also refused to rule out running for presidency in 2025, noting that the decision will be made by the party within 10 months.