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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI INTERVIEW: Consumer Price Expectations Have Turned - UMich
Consumers do not expect inflation to come roaring back, the director of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers says.
MNI BRIEF: ECB Likely To Start With Moderate Cut - Villeroy
ECB should adopt policy of "agile gradualism" as rate cuts start, BdF head says.
MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 1 April, 2024
Germany, Spain, France and Finland are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E33.8bln, around double the E16.8bln of this week.
MNI Chile Central Bank Preview - April 2024: Risk of More Moderate Rate Cuts
Large inflation surprises, an increase in inflation expectations and a more cautious Fed support case for moderation in the pace of rate cuts
MNI: Italy's Meloni Eyes League Downgrade After June- Sources
More confident after two years in office, Italy's PM will look to consolidate her control of government after elections, sources say.
Biden To Bolster Cash Advantage Over Trump With NY Fundraiser
President Biden and former Democrat presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama will attend a campaign event in New York City this evening which Biden’s presidential campaign expects to bring in USD$25 million. The private event kicks off around 20:00 ET 00:00 GMT.
- Politico reports: “More than 5,000 people are expected to hit Radio City Music Hall for the event in person, the campaign says, with thousands more watching online. The cheapest tickets start at $250 and go up to $500,000 for smaller receptions. You want a photo with all three presidents? That’ll run you $100,000.”
- The event will further boost Biden’s huge cash advantage over former President Donald Trump who raised a comparatively small USD$20 million in February, according to campaign finance disclosures.
- The Hill notes, "Biden’s cash advantage over Trump — currently sitting at roughly $40 million — may prove decisive in a race largely hinging on turnout and whichever campaign can effectively reach and mobilize voters."
- FT notes: “Billionaire investor John Paulson will host a fundraiser for Trump on April 6 in Palm Beach, Florida, which is expected to gather some of the top Republican donors.”
Biden's Weakness Amongst Young Voters May Be Overstated
Split Ticket has publishedindependent polling analysis – to be released in full next week - on the voting intention of young voters, concluding that – contrary assertions from some pollsters – young people are unlikely to flip to Trump in November.
- Split Ticket writes: “Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom many public polls have begun to portray as exceptionally Trump-curious …if these polls are accurately capturing the movement across age groups, it would be nothing short of earth-shattering."
- Split Ticket notes that, “Biden is deeply unpopular with young voters, as 68% of them view him unfavorably. On the face of it, Biden’s standing with this group looks a lot like Donald Trump’s, who sits at a very similar 70% unfavorable rating.”
- However, as Split Ticket notes: “…voters under the age of 30 are significantly more likely to hold a “strongly unfavorable” view of Trump than they are of Biden. In fact, a whopping 61% of young adults have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump, compared to the 44% [for Biden].”
- Split Ticket concludes: “At the end of the day, though, we’re still not seeing any evidence that young voters are especially inclined to vote for Donald Trump..."
Figure 1: Young Voter Opinions on Biden and Trump
Source Split Ticket
Figure 2: How Young “Double Haters” Say They’d Vote?
Source Split Ticket
-LATAM: Talks On EU-Mercosur Agreement "Promising"- Lula
Wires reporting comments from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio 'Lula' da Silva during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron stating that, "current Mercosur-EU talks for an agreement is more promising than previously." Lula adds, "we will try to keep talking about potential EU-Mercosur agreement."
- The joint presser caps a three-day trip from Macron designed to reset the Franco-Brazilian bilateral relationship following strain during the administration of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. The two countries made notable progress on defence, launching an agreement to build a new nuclear powered submarine fleet using French technology.
- The Elysée told reporters ahead of the trip: “This Brazilian moment comes after a four-year eclipse and a virtual freeze in political relations between our two countries during [Jair] Bolsonaro’s presidency.”
- The Elysée noted that talks on EU-Mercour would not take place as any discussion should be undertaken by the EU as a bloc rather than bilaterally.
- Euractiv reports: "While Brazil has said it is ready to sign the deal, France has remained the sole holdout in Europe speaking against the trade agreement, saying it wants to protect its own farmers – a critical issue in the bloc at the moment, as agri producers their interest to the street against European regulation, just a few months before June’s EU elections."
US "Deeply Concerned" About Blocking Of Venezuela Opposition Candidates
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has told reporters that the United States is, "deeply concerned," about decisions taken by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council to prevent opposition parties from registering candidates for the upcoming presidential election.
- Miller: "We're gonna continue to make clear to [Venezuelan President Nicholas] Maduro and his representatives that they need to ensure international observer access, they need to end the jailing and harassment of civil society members, and they need to allow a free and fair election."
- Miller warns: "As we have made clear, actions that run counter to the spirit and letter of the Barbados Agree will have consequences... We've spoken to the fact that there is a general license [referring to sanctions relief on the Venezuelan oil sector] that expires next month. I'm not going to make any determinations from here about what decision we will take then but we have been very clear with Maduro and his representatives about what we expect them to take and what the consequences would be if they don't."
- Miller declines to elaborate on what decision the Biden administration will take on the oil license, but notes that the US already allowed a similar general license providing sanctions relief to the gold sector to lapse without renewal.
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MNI ASIA OPEN: Fed Gov Waller Left Mark on Short End
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Projected Rate Cut Pricing Subdued
MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ Flash HICP and US NFP Highlight
MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Treasuries Pressured as Waller Leans on Rate Cuts
MNI US OPEN - Fed's Waller Says Easing Cycle Can Begin in Smaller Steps
MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Cracks Support
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.