Polling Continues To Show No Clear Gov't With Election Three Weeks Away

Opinion polling ahead of Israel's general election on 23 March continues to show a chaotic political landscape with the formation of a majority gov't looking tricky post-election.

• Panels Politics (seats): Likud: 28 (-1), Yesh Atid: 19 (+2), New Hope: 13 (-1), Yamina : 11, Joint List: 9, Shas: 8, UTJ: 7, Yisrael Beiteinu: 7, Labor: 6 (+1), Meretz: 4, B&W: 4 (-1), Religious Zionist: 4. Fieldwork 28 Feb, changes w/25 Feb, 574 respondents. Pro-Netanyahu bloc: 47 seats (-1), Anti-Netanyahu bloc: 62 (+1), Yamina: 11. 61 seats required for majority.
• The polling would seem to indicate a narrow but sufficient majority for the anti-Netanyahu bloc, with Likud and its allies still short of the 61 seats required for a majority even if the right-wing Yamina offered their support to PM Neyanyahu.
• However, there seems little prospect of a coherent gov't being formed by the anti-Netanyahu bloc given that it contains the Arab-interest Joint List, and the right-wing nationalist Yisrael Beitienu (YB), two parties that could not work together in gov't.
• The potential addition of Yamina to the bloc would assuage the loss of the Joint List, but then there would be the major ideological differences between the right-wing Yamina and YB, and the centre-left liberal Labor and leftist Meretz parties, once again making the formation of a coherent gov't very difficult.