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Population Watch: Gov Slows Visas, Trend Must Continue To Hit Target

CANADA
  • Canada's plan to reduce non-permanent residents to a target of 5% of the population by 2027 after the past 2Y of rapid population growth is underway; Scotiabank says admissions of temporary residents -7.6% YOY.
  • Population hit record 41M in Q1 according to StatsCan. The last labour force survey said the population 15 and over +3.4% YOY in June.
  • Temporary work permit issuance slowed to +20.1K in May from +146.3K in March. StatsCan says Q1 was one of the lowest quarterly net increases since higher levels of temporary migration began in Q2 2022. Scotiabank says this pattern must continue before its impact is seen in the LFS numbers.
  • Economic indicators have been propped up by population increases; output per person has fallen in six of the last seven quarters according to Desjardins.
  • BoC's projections from the April MPR reflect the government's population targets and reduced the growth outlook accordingly.
  • Minutes from the Bank's June decision to cut rates said officials "would need to watch population dynamics carefully in the coming months."

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