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Porsche (NR): New Issue FV Analysis

CREDIT SUPPLY
  • IPT: Porsche SE EUR Bmark; Long 5Y MS+140a, Long 8Y MS+175a.
  • We see FV at 110a / 140a.
  • When PORSCH came with the benchmark 28s last year, bonds performed very strongly. It priced at B+211 and traded at B+142 less than 2 months later. This was driven by retail demand, with the issuer something of a novelty.
  • The subsequent dual tranche did much worse, trading down on the break, with pricing probably too aggressive with the novelty demand largely saturated.
  • While the 27s and 28s remain tight to VW the 30s trade slightly wide, with the longer dated bond less popular with retail and more reflective of real credit risk.
  • We see FV benchmarked to that bond, flat to slightly wide of VW.

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