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Positioning Data Shows Rising Negative MXN Sentiment

MEXICO
  • According to the latest CFTC data, market participants boosted their bearish MXN positions for the fourth straight week to the highest since March 2017.
    • Non-commercial investors were short MXN to the tune of 39,634 contracts as of Oct. 12 vs 35,579 short contracts a week prior. During this period the Peso fell 1.02%.
    • Leveraged funds were reported to have increased their long peso positions while institutional investors trimmed them.
  • Despite the pullback in USDMXN throughout Friday, the stronger dollar to start the week has caused a noticeable 0.75% bounce for the pair back to levels just shy of 20.50. The short-term focus is on 20.2039 support, the Sep. 20 high.
  • Obvious domestic headwinds remain in place surrounding the uncertainty of the proposed electricity reforms with a potential cost in damages and compensation to private industry of about $85 billion, according to Citibanamex analysts in a report released last week.
  • Additionally, writing in the newspaper Milenio last week, Mexican legal scholar Sergio Lopez Ayllon warned that under the reform the CFE "acquires constitutional autonomy, an unprecedented condition with enormous legal and economic consequences."
  • This week, the domestic data focus will be on Thursday's retail sales followed by Friday's release of bi-weekly CPI.
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