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Positive Trend Persists, But Only Partially Reversed Last Week's Fall

OIL

Brent crude gains have extended in the first part of Friday trade. The active contract was last near $84.40/bbl, up nearly 0.60% for the session. We have posted modest gains in 4 out of 5 trading sessions this week. At this stage we are tracking 1.70% firmer for the week, although this only partially offsets last week's 7.3% fall. WTI front month was last close to $79.80/bbl.

  • Broader macro trends around a softer dollar and weaker US yield backdrop have aided the oil rebound in recent sessions.
  • We had weaker China import volume data for oil yesterday, but broader macro trends from China were better, while housing equity indices are rising on easier restrictions in a number of cities.
  • Israel has launched attacks into Rafah, with cease-fire talks not producing a positive result at this stage. So Middle Eastern tensions will be eyed. Still, Brent prompt spreads have been very steady this week, last around 0.55.
  • The technical backdrop for Brent remains cautious. We are probing above the 20-day EMA in the first part of Friday trade, while the 50-day sits further north close to $85.75/bbl. Earlier May lows rest at $81.71/bbl.
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