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Post-Employment Report React

US TSYS

Treasury futures gap lower after higher than expected March employment data show job gain of 300k vs. 214k est, 275k prior down revised to 2701k.
Jun'24 10Y futures trades down to 109-17 (-19), yield 4.3875%. Initial technical support of 109-09.5 (Apr 3 low). Curves steeper, 2s10s +1.357 at -32.656.
Balance of data: Private Payrolls (232k vs 170k est)

  • Unemployment Rate (3.8% vs. 3.8% est vs. 3.9% prior),
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (4.1% vs. 4.1% est),
  • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.7% vs. 62.6% est)
Focus turns to Fed speakers with
  • Boston Fed Collins Gives making opening remarks at a crypto conf (no Q&A)
  • Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook (text, Q&A) at 0915ET
  • Dallas Fed Logan Duke Univ economic event (text, Q&A) at 1100ET
  • Fed Gov Bowman on risks in mon/pol (text, Q&A) at 1215ET.
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