Free Trial

Post JOLTS Job Opening Drop, Mar'24 Projected Cut Gains

STIR
  • SOFR futures gapped higher (SFRZ3-SFRU4 +0.050-0.080) the JOLTS jobs miss for October: biggest monthly drop since May 2023 and marks the lowest level of job openings since March 2021, with the ratio of openings/unemployed dropping to 1.34, the lowest since Aug 2021.
  • Futures have scaled back appr half of the knee-jerk bid, short end lagging the move altogether ahead of Friday's employment data for November.
  • Mixed 2024 rate cut projections: December steady at -.3bp at 5.333%, January 2024 cumulative -3.8bp at 5.298%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -59.5% (vs. -55.2% this morning) with cumulative at -18.2bp at 5.154%, May 2024 pricing in -70.7% (-71.2% this morning) with cumulative -35.9bp at 4.997%. Fed terminal at 5.335% in Feb'24.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.