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UK: ###POV: BOE RATE HIKE IN AUGUST?
- MNI PINCH see markets now pricing a 50% chance of a BoE rate hike in August up
from low of 25% seen last week following higher than expected UK service PMI
data. But can the BoE raise rates considering the following?:
- BoE's Tenreyro (possibly holding similar views as majority on MPC) defended a
wait-and-see approach to hiking Bank Rate, in comments made on Monday evening.
Added that "much of the downside Q1 GDP news is likely to be erratic, but it
does increase the possibility of some underlying weakness in demand,"
- Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said on UK PMI data
that although showing a rebound in activity in May it raised concerns over
future expectations "suggesting the economy could relapse".
- While UK businesses confirmed in recent discussion with PM may that they are
holding back investment until future relationship between UK & EU after Brexit
becomes clearer. This is unlikely as government delays Brexit white paper.
- Risk is that UK data starts to show rebound in economic growth in Q2 and there
is progress on Brexit negotiations. Jun 12 is likely to be a key date.