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ACGB Apr-27 Supply Goes Well

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* -20,000 EDH'18, 98.39 (-0.010), 98.385 last. This coincides with large 82k 1Y
midcurve short Feb 76/78 put spds bought at 4.0 before the open. While the
option's underlying is the Red Mar'19 futures, the serial option expires same as
the the front Feb will. The heavy selling in the short end over the past week
has not only pushed the rate hike probability up to 66.5% for the Dec FOMC, but
a follow-up hike at the March 28, 2018 FOMC has climbed to 35.6%. The jump in
March hike chances compares to appr 5% just a couple weeks ago. While there has
been some significant long put unwinds, accounts still vested in the game are
holding onto downside insurance, with ample opportunity to buy relatively cheap,
low delta insurance to cover the rise in March chances still available.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |

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