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Early Eurodollar/SOFR/Tsy Option Roundup

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EU Gas Consumption Dipping

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ECB
ECB: ### POV: JUNE QE DECISION NO DONE DEAL
- The June 14 ECB GC meeting is hardly certain to deliver a decisive
announcement on ending QE, despite news reports and ECB hawks` comments.
- MNI`s Policy team on Jun 1 cited Eurosystem sources saying a June
decision/statement on QE end-date was not expected. While our ears remain to the
ground, we have heard nothing since then to think that has changed.
- Italy remains an elephant in the room: 10Y BTP/Bund Spreads have subsided from
the 300.6bps May high, but at 243bps remain far higher than 120.6bps on May 1
and wider than at any point between 2014-17.
- The meeting is in Riga. Major policy announcements outside Frankfurt are rare,
with only 2 to our knowledge: Paris Oct-06 (hike) and Bratislava May-13 (cut).
- The exit is in sight, but what seems clearer from recent comments is that QE
is more likely to end in Dec, not Sep, with even some hawks implying this.
- The most likely hawkish shift after what is likely to be a lively debate is to
signal an announcement in July/August, perhaps giving time to decide on a taper
post-September, pending more evidence of sustained inflation.

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