### POV: JUNE QE DECISION NO DONE DEAL - The....>

ECB: ### POV: JUNE QE DECISION NO DONE DEAL

- The June 14 ECB GC meeting is hardly certain to deliver a decisive

announcement on ending QE, despite news reports and ECB hawks` comments.

- MNI`s Policy team on Jun 1 cited Eurosystem sources saying a June

decision/statement on QE end-date was not expected. While our ears remain to the

ground, we have heard nothing since then to think that has changed.

- Italy remains an elephant in the room: 10Y BTP/Bund Spreads have subsided from

the 300.6bps May high, but at 243bps remain far higher than 120.6bps on May 1

and wider than at any point between 2014-17.

- The meeting is in Riga. Major policy announcements outside Frankfurt are rare,

with only 2 to our knowledge: Paris Oct-06 (hike) and Bratislava May-13 (cut).

- The exit is in sight, but what seems clearer from recent comments is that QE

is more likely to end in Dec, not Sep, with even some hawks implying this.

- The most likely hawkish shift after what is likely to be a lively debate is to

signal an announcement in July/August, perhaps giving time to decide on a taper

post-September, pending more evidence of sustained inflation.