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STERLING: ### POV: LABOUR SPLIT SEEN AS NO GAME CHANGER FOR GBP
-While the seven MPs who defected from the Labour Party wouldn't want to agree,
it's unlikely their withdrawal from Corbyn's oversight will change parliamentary
outcomes in any material way. The MPs' departure from Labour brings the party's
representation in the Commons down to 248 seats, a loss of 1% of total votes.
-One circumstance that could change the parliamentary maths: if a second wave of
MPs join the splinter group (most importantly, any Conservative moderates such
as Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston or Heidi Allen), this could erode entirely
Theresa May's confidence-and-supply agreement majority, making the passage of
her Brexit withdrawal proposals even trickier, thereby raising the possibility
of either a 'No Deal' Brexit or an extension to Article 50.
-GBP has taken the news in its stride, with spot rates barely budging.
Nonetheless, two-month implied vols (capturing the Mar29 Brexit day) are ticking
higher again having bottomed out in late January. PM May's Attorney General Cox
will seek to assuage concerns of lawmakers surrounding the Irish backstop