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RBNZ: POV - OCR ON HOLD, DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN
- The RBNZ is unanimously expected to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, with
focus on the accompanying statement for future guidance.
- Despite inflation moving closer to its mid-point target, downside risks to the
global growth outlook remain.
- Increased trade tensions, slowing Chinese growth and weak business sentiment
could see the RBNZ strike a more dovish tone.
- The RBNZ is expected to reaffirm its data dependant stance with main focus on
the future OCR hike path.
Central view - Consistent message, alluding to greater risks to global growth,
data dependant going forward.
Dovish risk - Greater risk from the Chinese economic slowdown, further pressure
in the housing & jobs markets, OCR hike path pushed out.
Hawkish risk - Play down recent data, upgrade inflation & GDP projections.