### POV: RBA TO REMAIN COMFORTABLY ON HOLD......>

RBA: ### POV: RBA TO REMAIN COMFORTABLY ON HOLD

All of those surveyed expect the RBA to leave its cash rate unchanged at 1.5% on

Tuesday. CPI and wage growth remain subdued with interest rate mkts fully

pricing in a 25bp hike in Q4 2019. The last decision saw the RBA introduce risks

around Italy, some EM economies and tighter domestic lending standards, while

the minutes of that meeting removed the reference to the greater likelihood of

the next move in the cash rate being up as opposed to down.

- Hawkish: The RBA takes greater confidence from the Q1 GDP reading (unlikely as

the stronger than exp. print makes the RBA's '18 GDP growth projection look more

likely as opposed to presenting upside risk)/lower unemployment rate.

- Neutral: The RBA reiterates its comfortably on hold stance, with a balanced

message regarding the upside and downside risks to its projection and

Australia's economic outlook.

- Dovish: The RBA gives a greater acknowledgement of global trade war risks, or

increased worry regarding housing prices and the knock on effects for

consumption or a further elevation in the level of domestic lending standards.