### POV: WHAT NEXT FOR NFP - Despite ADP......>

FOREX: ### POV: WHAT NEXT FOR NFP

- Despite ADP employment coming in well above expectations at 241k, many bank

analysts have not revised up their forecasts ahead of Friday's NFP release.

- Historically, ADP has had a difficult time of late factoring in fluctuations

due to seasonal changes in weather. It is also worth noting the NFP number has

rarely fallen within a plus or minus 10% range of ADP.

- Employment growth has started on a strong footing in 2018, posting consecutive

gains for January & February. Since the year 2000 there has only been 2 other

times when the NFP has shown positive readings in January & February, only to

fail to extend this run into March.

- Following Wednesday's firm ADP report, trader unofficial expectations are for

another strong headline print of 200+. With a June rate hike nearly priced in, a

much stronger reading could force the Fed's hand to four rate hikes in 2018.

 Risk - AHE expectations are high at 0.3% m/m, only 4 times in the last 2 years

have AHE printed 0.3-0.4%. The risk is a downside miss which could negate a

strong headline number.