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Powell - Labor Market Very, Very Strong

FED

Powell in opening remarks for his appearance with ECB's Knot (but with no prepared text):

  • The labor market is very very strong. It was overheated a couple years back. It’s coming back gradually into a better balance. Looking at a broad range of data, it’s about as tight as it was before the pandemic in 2019. That’s good. Real wages are now positive. Coming back into balance just as we would want.
  • Core inflation is down by half. That progress though really happened over the course of last year and in particular 2H23. The first quarter was notable for lack of progress, higher than anybody expected. We’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.
  • Outlook: We expect continued growth of 2% or better, the labor market to remain strong and move further into balance and I expect inflation will move back down on a monthly basis with readings that were more like the lower readings from last year. My confidence is lower than it was prior to the readings seen earlier this year.
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