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US OUTLOOK/OPINION

RBC See Payrolls Below Consensus

EURJPY TECHS

Vulnerable Despite Recent Bounce

USDJPY TECHS

Probes Key Short-Term Support

US TSY FLOWS

Selling Into Late Session Bounce

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Jay Powell's probability of reconfirmation as Fed Chair fell to as low as 43% on PredictIt in the last couple of hours - triggered by The American Prospect publishing a piece titled "Jerome Powell Sold More Than a Million Dollars of Stock as the Market Was Tanking".

  • His implied prob fell from 76% previously, though it last traded 61%. Brainard's went as high as 34%, last 23%.
  • Though we wouldn't read too much into those probabilities (liquidity on PredictIt is pretty limited, Powell Bid/Ask is 39/68 for example), this is worth keeping an eye on especially as Brainard is seen as a dovish alternative.

"Intraday Implied %Prob: "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?"Source: PredictIt