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Powell Still Favorite To Retain Chair

FED

The latest betting odds (looking at PredictIt and Betfair) show Jay Powell with around 70% implied probability of being reconfirmed as Fed Chair for another term. His term expires in Feb 2022 but Pres Biden is expected to make a pick well ahead of time.

  • Gov Lael Brainard is the closest perceived contender to replace him at around 20% probability, though that's well up from 5-10% a month ago.
  • Outside shots include Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic and ex-Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson (each ~6%).
  • Coming in at <1% are ex-Fed Gov Sarah Bloom Raskin and AFL-CIO Chief Economist William Spriggs.

Source: PredictIt

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