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POWER: France, German Day Ahead Move in Mixed Directions

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead diverged, with France rising amid firm power demand and a drop in wind, with nuclear availability little unchanged. Lower German power consumption, coupled with firm wind on the day dropped costs just slightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €77.87/MWh from €77.98/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €54.60/MWh from €48.57/MWh in the previous day.
  • German wind output is expected at 16.10-17.47GW, or load factors of 25-27% over 19-20 September compared to a 24% load factor forecast for today, according to Spot Renewables. But wind will then decrease to a 15% load factor on 21 Sept (Sat) – likely limiting losses from a drop in demand and closing the door for negative power prices for some hours.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggest average temperatures being over the 30-year norm throughout the forecasts – reaching as high as 18.7C on 18-19 September.
  • German power demand is forecast at around 53.9GW on Thursday, down from 54.4GW estimated for today, with consumption expected to fall to 44.45-52.5GW over 20-21 September.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at 6.52GW, or a 33% load factor on Thursday, down from 7.76GW forecast for today, with wind dropping to 3.83GW the next day – which could support costs.
  • Domestic demand is forecast to remain firm on the day on 19 September at around 44.6GW.
  • Nuclear availability in France stood at 67% of capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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The German and French day-ahead diverged, with France rising amid firm power demand and a drop in wind, with nuclear availability little unchanged. Lower German power consumption, coupled with firm wind on the day dropped costs just slightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €77.87/MWh from €77.98/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €54.60/MWh from €48.57/MWh in the previous day.
  • German wind output is expected at 16.10-17.47GW, or load factors of 25-27% over 19-20 September compared to a 24% load factor forecast for today, according to Spot Renewables. But wind will then decrease to a 15% load factor on 21 Sept (Sat) – likely limiting losses from a drop in demand and closing the door for negative power prices for some hours.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggest average temperatures being over the 30-year norm throughout the forecasts – reaching as high as 18.7C on 18-19 September.
  • German power demand is forecast at around 53.9GW on Thursday, down from 54.4GW estimated for today, with consumption expected to fall to 44.45-52.5GW over 20-21 September.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at 6.52GW, or a 33% load factor on Thursday, down from 7.76GW forecast for today, with wind dropping to 3.83GW the next day – which could support costs.
  • Domestic demand is forecast to remain firm on the day on 19 September at around 44.6GW.
  • Nuclear availability in France stood at 67% of capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.