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POWER: France, German Day Ahead Move in Mixed Directions

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead contracts diverged, with France falling amid strong nuclear availability and a rise in wind. Higher German power consumption, coupled with weaker wind on the day raised domestic costs slightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.32/MWh from €83.72/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €32.75/MWh from €56.20/MWh in the previous day.
  • No negative hourly power prices were recorded in either country, however, French hourly delivery cost cleared as low as €0.00/MWh for hour 15-16 compared to €90.08/MWh for the same hour in Germany.
  • German wind output is expected at 13.58GW, or a 21% load factor on 8 Oct compared to a 24% load factor forecast for today, according to Spot Renewables. But wind will then increase between 24-44% load factors over 9-10 Oct – likely dropping costs from the previous session.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggest average temperatures being revised down over 7-8 Oct – albeit remaining above the 30-year norm -however temps will then flip below over 11-14 Oct.
  • German power demand is forecast at around 55.26GW on Tuesday, up from 54GW estimated for today.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at 8.47GW, or a 42% load factor on 8 Oct, up from 6.4GW forecast for today, with wind rising to 9.56GW the next day – which could weigh on costs.
  • Nuclear availability in France stood at 70% of capacity on Monday morning, up from 68% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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The German and French day-ahead contracts diverged, with France falling amid strong nuclear availability and a rise in wind. Higher German power consumption, coupled with weaker wind on the day raised domestic costs slightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €91.32/MWh from €83.72/MWh in the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €32.75/MWh from €56.20/MWh in the previous day.
  • No negative hourly power prices were recorded in either country, however, French hourly delivery cost cleared as low as €0.00/MWh for hour 15-16 compared to €90.08/MWh for the same hour in Germany.
  • German wind output is expected at 13.58GW, or a 21% load factor on 8 Oct compared to a 24% load factor forecast for today, according to Spot Renewables. But wind will then increase between 24-44% load factors over 9-10 Oct – likely dropping costs from the previous session.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggest average temperatures being revised down over 7-8 Oct – albeit remaining above the 30-year norm -however temps will then flip below over 11-14 Oct.
  • German power demand is forecast at around 55.26GW on Tuesday, up from 54GW estimated for today.
  • In contrast, French wind output is forecast at 8.47GW, or a 42% load factor on 8 Oct, up from 6.4GW forecast for today, with wind rising to 9.56GW the next day – which could weigh on costs.
  • Nuclear availability in France stood at 70% of capacity on Monday morning, up from 68% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.