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POWER: French Sept Rebounds

POWER

The French front month is continuing to climb from its previous close amid an upward revision of temperatures in Paris, with EU ETS prices adding support, while gas prices are currently trending slightly up.

France Base Power SEP 24 up 1.2% at 68.25 EUR/MWh

EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 70.95 EUR/MT

TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0.6% at 37.9 EUR/MWh

The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggest mean temperatures have been revised up over 27-29 August at between 1-1.4C on the day, with temperatures between 19.6-22C over the period – higher than the 30-year norm of about 18.2C.

In France, nuclear availability was unchanged on the day at 72% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.

EdF’s 910MW Gravelines 4 and Bugey 3 reactors are still anticipated to return on 31 August and 1 September, respectively.

And the 1.33GW Flamanville 2 and 910MW Blayais 1 nuclear units will return over 6-9 September.

French wind output is forecast at an 11% load factor, or 2.15GW on 28 August, slightly up from today, with peak load solar PV output forecast to be at a 46% load factor, or 8.81GW – possibly keeping weight on peak load prices.

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