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POWER: German, French Day-Ahead Rise, DE Premium at Weekly Low

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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both increased, with France leading gains as a drop in wind and nuclear capacity supported domestic costs.  Germany moved up slower amid higher wind load factors – although lower on the day – compared to the latter, with lower demand weighing sightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €95.20/MWh from €59.73/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €87.27/MWh from €47.56/MWh on the previous day.
  • The German day-ahead was at a €7.93/MWh premium from a €12.17/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at just 14.01GW, or a 22% load factor on 11 Oct – down compared to a 45% load factor anticipated today – and will remain firm the next day at a 21% load factor – which could keep weight on delivery costs coupled with a drop in demand.
  • German power demand on 11 Oct is anticipated at 52.9GW – sharply down from 54.1GW anticipated for 10 Oct. Demand is then expected to drop between 44.3-46.1GW over 12-13 Oct (Sat-Sun).
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at just 1.66GW, or an 8% load factor on 11 Oct, rising to a 20% load factor the next day, which may widen the French-German spread.
  • French power demand will climb on the day to around 48.7GW on 11 Oct from 47.05GW expected today. Demand will then be between 41.5-44.1GW over 12-13 Oct – likely weighing on delivery costs.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 72% as of Thursday morning, down from 74% on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both increased, with France leading gains as a drop in wind and nuclear capacity supported domestic costs.  Germany moved up slower amid higher wind load factors – although lower on the day – compared to the latter, with lower demand weighing sightly.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €95.20/MWh from €59.73/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €87.27/MWh from €47.56/MWh on the previous day.
  • The German day-ahead was at a €7.93/MWh premium from a €12.17/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • German wind is expected at just 14.01GW, or a 22% load factor on 11 Oct – down compared to a 45% load factor anticipated today – and will remain firm the next day at a 21% load factor – which could keep weight on delivery costs coupled with a drop in demand.
  • German power demand on 11 Oct is anticipated at 52.9GW – sharply down from 54.1GW anticipated for 10 Oct. Demand is then expected to drop between 44.3-46.1GW over 12-13 Oct (Sat-Sun).
  • In France, wind forecast point to output at just 1.66GW, or an 8% load factor on 11 Oct, rising to a 20% load factor the next day, which may widen the French-German spread.
  • French power demand will climb on the day to around 48.7GW on 11 Oct from 47.05GW expected today. Demand will then be between 41.5-44.1GW over 12-13 Oct – likely weighing on delivery costs.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 72% as of Thursday morning, down from 74% on Wednesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.