POWER: German Sept Tracks Weekly Net Decline

The Germany September power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net decrease of almost 3.5%, weighed on by sharp losses in natural gas prices, while carbon allowances are broadly stable on the week. 

• TTF front month has rebounded slightly since reaching a low of €36.17/MWh yesterday as the market erases the risk premium associated with Ukraine transit concerns but remains wary of tightening supplies during the coming three week Norway maintenance season.
• EU ETS Dec24 is edging also trading higher today amid gains in natural gas prices. Price are currently stable compared with last Friday’s close. The next German EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures have been revised down at the start of the forecast period. Mean temps are forecast to be above the 30-year normal throughout the forecast period, except for this weekend and early next week. 
• In Germany, wind output is forecast to decline on Saturday to 15.13GW during base load, down from 23.44GW forecast for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 14.6GW, up from 13.18GW forecast for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is today seen to peak at 61.6GW, before falling a max of 50.85GW on Saturday and of 47.63GW on Sunday according to Bloomberg.
• German net power imports from France are seen at 1.35GW on Friday, down from the five-day moving average of 2.06GW, Entso-E data showed.
  • Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 1.7% at 89.4 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1% at 72.3 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas SEP 24 up 1.4% at 37.1 EUR/MWh