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POWER: German September Struggles to Find Direction, Track Gas

POWER

Germany Sept power is struggling to find a clear direction - tracking similar movements in natural gas and EU ETS. Wind output over the weekend will be at 12-16% load factors, which could drop prices from today coupled with low weekend demand.

  • France Base Power SEP 24 up 1.9% at 73.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 0.2% at 90.5 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 71.01 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas Sept 24 up 0.08% at 38.60 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front-month is just below the weekly high of €39.58/MWh, supported by reduced Norwegian pipeline supplies amid seasonal maintenance.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher on Friday, tracking gains in natural gas prices. The next German EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast between 7.6-10.6GW over Saturday-Sunday, respectively, up from 4.65GW estimated for Friday before dropping to a 14% load factor the next day – likely lifting cost from the previous day, according to SpotRenewables.
  • German lignite generation is at around 9.35GW on Friday morning, up compared to the 2019-23 average of 6.34GW over the same period and higher than the previous day at 8.26GW.
  • Gas-fired output is at around 9.39GW this morning, up from 3.40GW to the 5-year average and higher than 7.6GW on Thursday.
  • Germany’s 292MW lignite-fired Janschwalde block A power plant is anticipated to have maintenance over 30 August – 1 September – likely lowering baseload generation.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF for Berlin suggested mean temperatures have been revised slightly down but will still remain above the 30-year norm of around 16C over 30 August-8 September, with max temperatures reaching around 31C over 3-4 September – likely spurring cooling demand.
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