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POWER: German Spot Power to Plunge on Wind {GE}{1I} GERMANY

POWER
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German spot power prices are likely to plunge for Thursday’s delivery with wind output forecast to reach 28.33GW during peak-load hours, equivalent to a 44% load factor. Prices on the curve are ticking higher with gains in EU natural gas prices. 

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.9% at 77.45 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 64.34 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.6% at 36.325 EUR/MWh
  • TTF has resumed gains but still below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week as the market focuses on geopolitical and hurricane driven supply risks and with a brief cold spell expected in NW Europe this weekend.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher today with gains in natural gas and the September options contract expiry today with the put options strike price at €65/ton CO2e. The next Polish EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise on Thursday to 25.72GW during base load, up from 18.96GW forecasted for Wednesday. Solar PV Output is forecast to decline on the day to 7.39GW during peak load, down from 11.93GW forecasted for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load is estimated to decrease by 6.3GWh on the day to 21GWh according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to be in line with the seasonal normal until 27 September, before falling below the average until 30 September, after which temperatures are back in line with the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 64.42GW on Thursday, compared with 64.88GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed. 
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German spot power prices are likely to plunge for Thursday’s delivery with wind output forecast to reach 28.33GW during peak-load hours, equivalent to a 44% load factor. Prices on the curve are ticking higher with gains in EU natural gas prices. 

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.9% at 77.45 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 64.34 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.6% at 36.325 EUR/MWh
  • TTF has resumed gains but still below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week as the market focuses on geopolitical and hurricane driven supply risks and with a brief cold spell expected in NW Europe this weekend.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher today with gains in natural gas and the September options contract expiry today with the put options strike price at €65/ton CO2e. The next Polish EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise on Thursday to 25.72GW during base load, up from 18.96GW forecasted for Wednesday. Solar PV Output is forecast to decline on the day to 7.39GW during peak load, down from 11.93GW forecasted for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load is estimated to decrease by 6.3GWh on the day to 21GWh according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to be in line with the seasonal normal until 27 September, before falling below the average until 30 September, after which temperatures are back in line with the average. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 64.42GW on Thursday, compared with 64.88GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.