September 18, 2024 07:10 GMT
POWER: German Spot Prices to Fall on Higher Wind
POWER
German spot power is likely to fall with forecasts for stronger wind output. German front-month power base load is edging lower but remains within this week’s range, with upside pressure from EU gas prices and forecasts for cooler weather at the end of the forecast period.
- Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.6% at 76.08 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 64.4 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas OCT 24 up 0.4% at 35.685 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is holding steady with the expected return of Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe set against a cooler weather forecast for the end of the month and into the start of October.
- EU ETS Dec24 also trading stable, tracking movements in natural gas, ahead of the EUA CoT data release later this morning. The next EU EUA CAP3 EUAA auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase on Thursday to 17.21GW during base load, up from 15.98GW forecasted for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast be broadly stable on the day at 21.68GW during peak load on Thursday, compared with 21.99GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures will remain above normal until 27 September, before falling below normal.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a maximum of 62.73GW on Wednesday and of 62.44GW on Thursday, Entso-E data showed.
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