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POWER: German Spot To Edge Rise on Lower Wind

POWER
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German spot power is likely to rise with wind output almost halving on the day, while lower demand and forecasts for higher solar output are expected to limit some gains. Further out, German front-month power futures are edging higher with an extension of gains in EU carbon allowances. 

  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 74 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.5% at 85.93 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.5% at 62.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.3% at 38.44 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is holding steady today after easing lower so far this week with the return of warm weather next week and as the Middle East risk premium has eased as energy markets await Israel’s response to Iran.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is trading higher, extending yesterday’s gains to break through the highs of this week, indicating buying interest while fundamentals are broadly unchanged.
  • The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise decrease sharply on the day to 13.7GW during base load on Friday, down from 24.62GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 13.3GW during peak load on Friday, up from 8.11GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to remain relatively high later this week with output expected to reach 29.34GW, or a 45% load factor on Sunday, likely pushing prices into negative territory.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a peak of 66.45GW on Thursday and of 65.49GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe to fall below normal on 10-14 October, before seeing above normal temperatures in the second half of October. 
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German spot power is likely to rise with wind output almost halving on the day, while lower demand and forecasts for higher solar output are expected to limit some gains. Further out, German front-month power futures are edging higher with an extension of gains in EU carbon allowances. 

  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 74 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.5% at 85.93 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.5% at 62.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.3% at 38.44 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is holding steady today after easing lower so far this week with the return of warm weather next week and as the Middle East risk premium has eased as energy markets await Israel’s response to Iran.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is trading higher, extending yesterday’s gains to break through the highs of this week, indicating buying interest while fundamentals are broadly unchanged.
  • The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise decrease sharply on the day to 13.7GW during base load on Friday, down from 24.62GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 13.3GW during peak load on Friday, up from 8.11GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to remain relatively high later this week with output expected to reach 29.34GW, or a 45% load factor on Sunday, likely pushing prices into negative territory.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a peak of 66.45GW on Thursday and of 65.49GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe to fall below normal on 10-14 October, before seeing above normal temperatures in the second half of October.