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POWER: German Spot to Fall on Soaring Wind

POWER
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German spot power is expected to fall further on Friday with forecasts for higher renewables output and lower demand. German power prices along the curve are pulling back with losses in the wider European energy complex. 

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1.1% at 78.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 64.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.1% at 36.91 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is holding just below the high of €37.61/MWh from yesterday amid further extensions to Norwegian outages, cold weather this weekend and uncertainty around future transit gas via Ukraine. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks while Hurricane Helene looks to be missing US LNG export terminals.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower today, closely tracking movements in EU natural gas, while losses are limited as the 30 September submission deadline may encourage some last-minute buying. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast rise further on Friday to 37.16GW during base load, up from 25.72GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 17.27GW during peak load on Friday, up from 7.39GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load is estimated to decline by 18.3GWh/h on Friday due to higher wind and solar forecasts according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe have been revised down and will remain above normal until 27 September, after which temperatures will remain below the seasonal average throughout the forecast period. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 64.42GW on Thursday and of 62.65GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.
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German spot power is expected to fall further on Friday with forecasts for higher renewables output and lower demand. German power prices along the curve are pulling back with losses in the wider European energy complex. 

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1.1% at 78.75 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.5% at 64.92 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.1% at 36.91 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is holding just below the high of €37.61/MWh from yesterday amid further extensions to Norwegian outages, cold weather this weekend and uncertainty around future transit gas via Ukraine. Hope of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have eased escalation risks while Hurricane Helene looks to be missing US LNG export terminals.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower today, closely tracking movements in EU natural gas, while losses are limited as the 30 September submission deadline may encourage some last-minute buying. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast rise further on Friday to 37.16GW during base load, up from 25.72GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase on the day to 17.27GW during peak load on Friday, up from 7.39GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load is estimated to decline by 18.3GWh/h on Friday due to higher wind and solar forecasts according to Reuters.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in NW Europe have been revised down and will remain above normal until 27 September, after which temperatures will remain below the seasonal average throughout the forecast period. Mean temperatures are forecast between 10-15C during the period.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 64.42GW on Thursday and of 62.65GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.