POWER: Mid-Day Summary CWE Forward Curve Climbs, FR-DE Discount Narrows to Low

The CWE forward curve is sharply up on the day, supported by price increases in EU ETS, European gas and coal, with September gains in France outpacing Germany – narrowing the FR-DE Sept discount to an August low of €-17.50/MWh.

• France Base Power SEP 24 up 7.9% at 72.75 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 3.3% at 90.25 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.3% at 71.43 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 2.3% at 38.52 EUR/MWh
• EU ETS Dec 24 is up to track similar price moves in European gas, with coal prices adding additional support, while the latest EU ETS CAP3 EU auction cleared higher at €70.17/ton CO2e from €69.28/ton CO2e – possibly supporting.
• The TTF front month is decisively resuming its rally from yesterday, with a keen focus on the tightening supplies during the Norwegian maintenance season.
• The EU's cap-and-trade scheme has had a 'significant impact' on reducing EU emissions, with a 15.4% increase in emissions possibly seen without it in certain sectors.
• France’s hydropower reserves edged up slightly to 86.86% of capacity, or 3.119TWh, widening the surplus to 2023 levels to the highest since week 7 of this year.
• Euronext and Nord Pool will create a Nordic and Baltic power futures market.
• The expansion of solar capacity in Spain has led to power prices decoupling from Portugal, despite sharing the same power market, with larger differences becoming more apparent.
• Poland’s maximum energy price should remain capped at PLN 500/MWh (€116.90/MWh) in 2025.
• Poland’s draft law in reducing the minimum distance of large wind turbines from buildings to 500m from 700m will be submitted for public consultation in September.
• Europe is not on track to meet its solar 2030 PV capacity target of 600GW, with less than 390GW of projects planned to be online by the end of the decade.