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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Resists Falling TTF

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported amid Norway’s hydro balance expected to turn negative in mid-October and temperatures set to near low of the forecasts range, with Oct already trading in green –. However, with losses in German power, and falling TTF the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 5.3% at 30 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1.7% at 78.69 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 65.9 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.6% at 37.3 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance is expected to flip negative on 10 October at -107GWh compared to positive on 28 Sept at +1TWh. The balance is expected to remain negative on 11 October at -272GWh.
  • However, Sweden balance is expected to remain positive at +580GWh on 11 Oct – revised up from +534GWh – but halving from the balance anticipated on 29 Sept at +1.06TWh.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as low as 5.33C on 6 Oct – towards the lower end of the ECMWF forecasts – and about 3C below seasonal Norms.
  • The wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to be mostly below the seasonal norm of 4 m/s throughout the 6–10-day estimate.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.39GW on 28 Sept – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery costs and open the door to negative prices amid a drop in demand.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 73% capacity on Friday morning, up from 72% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported amid Norway’s hydro balance expected to turn negative in mid-October and temperatures set to near low of the forecasts range, with Oct already trading in green –. However, with losses in German power, and falling TTF the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 5.3% at 30 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 1.7% at 78.69 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.9% at 65.9 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.6% at 37.3 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance is expected to flip negative on 10 October at -107GWh compared to positive on 28 Sept at +1TWh. The balance is expected to remain negative on 11 October at -272GWh.
  • However, Sweden balance is expected to remain positive at +580GWh on 11 Oct – revised up from +534GWh – but halving from the balance anticipated on 29 Sept at +1.06TWh.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to reach as low as 5.33C on 6 Oct – towards the lower end of the ECMWF forecasts – and about 3C below seasonal Norms.
  • The wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to be mostly below the seasonal norm of 4 m/s throughout the 6–10-day estimate.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.39GW on 28 Sept – up from forecasts for today – which could weigh on delivery costs and open the door to negative prices amid a drop in demand.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 73% capacity on Friday morning, up from 72% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.