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POWER: Nordic Curve Could Move in Mixed Directions

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported amid gains in German power, rising TTF and a slight downward revision of Norway’s hydro balance, however, with a much wetter outlook in Sweden coupled with forecasts for stronger wind towards the end of Sept the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24  closed up 5.1% at 21.8 EUR/MWh on 16 Sept
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.5% at 74.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 63.03 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1% at 34.41 EUR/MWh
  • Finnish operator TVO has had an unplanned 110MW curtailment of its 1.6GW OL3 reactor with the unit lowered at this capacity over 18-19 Sept for 19hrs.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance has been revised up from previous forecasts over 24 Sept-1 Oct, with the balance ending at +398GWh on 1 Oct compared to -18GWh in the previous forecast.
  • The Norwegian balance, however, has been slightly revised down, with the balance expected to end at +1.51TWh on 1 Oct from the previous forecasts of +1.64TWh.
  • The latest ECMWF wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to sharply climb from 2.2 m/s on 22 Sept to around 4 m/s towards the beginning of October – which could lead to an increase in wind output in the region.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.952GW on 18 Sept – up from the 0.559GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 67% capacity on Tuesday morning, up from 66% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 and 507MW Loviisa unit 1 are still anticipated to return on 29-30 Sept, respectively, latest Remit data show. 
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported amid gains in German power, rising TTF and a slight downward revision of Norway’s hydro balance, however, with a much wetter outlook in Sweden coupled with forecasts for stronger wind towards the end of Sept the curve could be weighed.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24  closed up 5.1% at 21.8 EUR/MWh on 16 Sept
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.5% at 74.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.3% at 63.03 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1% at 34.41 EUR/MWh
  • Finnish operator TVO has had an unplanned 110MW curtailment of its 1.6GW OL3 reactor with the unit lowered at this capacity over 18-19 Sept for 19hrs.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance has been revised up from previous forecasts over 24 Sept-1 Oct, with the balance ending at +398GWh on 1 Oct compared to -18GWh in the previous forecast.
  • The Norwegian balance, however, has been slightly revised down, with the balance expected to end at +1.51TWh on 1 Oct from the previous forecasts of +1.64TWh.
  • The latest ECMWF wind speed forecast for Nordics suggests speeds to sharply climb from 2.2 m/s on 22 Sept to around 4 m/s towards the beginning of October – which could lead to an increase in wind output in the region.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 0.952GW on 18 Sept – up from the 0.559GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 67% capacity on Tuesday morning, up from 66% on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 and 507MW Loviisa unit 1 are still anticipated to return on 29-30 Sept, respectively, latest Remit data show.