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POWER: Nordic Curve Drops

POWER
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Nordic power futures are being weighed down today amid a strong upward revision in the Nordic hydro balance, precipitation will be above normal starting on 8 October, with losses in European natural gas prices adding weight.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 0.4% at 44.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 86.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.4% at 62.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.5% at 39.7 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised higher over 12-18 Oct and is expected to flip into positive territory on 11 Oct. The balance is expected at +466GWh on 18 October compared to +190GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been revised upward over the 14-day forecasts and is expected to end at +2.00TWh on 18 Oct compared to +1.74TWh in the previous estimate. And Finland’s has remained unchanged on the day at -145GWh on the same day.
  • Precipitation in the Nordics is forecast to flip above normal on 8 October at around 3.68mm compared to 2.88mm for the same day. Rainfall is expected to reach as high as 10.04mm on 9 Oct – supporting hydro stocks.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecast suggested mean temperatures in the Nordics will reach as high as 10-11.1C over 9-11 Oct compared to the norm of around 8C for the same period – possibly limiting heating demand.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear availability edged down to 74% of capacity as of Friday, down from 75% on Friday, with eight out of eleven reactors online according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.6GW OL3 reactor is expected to be at around 1.49GW of capacity over 09:00-12:15 CET on 4 Oct – upping baseload generation.
  • The 890MW OL2 and 507 Loviisa reactors are still expected to return over 5-6 Oct.
  • Wind output in Norway is forecast at 427MW on Saturday (5 Oct) during base load, equivalent to an 8% load factor according to SpotRenewables – which may limit losses caused by a drop in demand on the day. 
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Nordic power futures are being weighed down today amid a strong upward revision in the Nordic hydro balance, precipitation will be above normal starting on 8 October, with losses in European natural gas prices adding weight.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 0.4% at 44.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0% at 86.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.4% at 62.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 0.5% at 39.7 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised higher over 12-18 Oct and is expected to flip into positive territory on 11 Oct. The balance is expected at +466GWh on 18 October compared to +190GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been revised upward over the 14-day forecasts and is expected to end at +2.00TWh on 18 Oct compared to +1.74TWh in the previous estimate. And Finland’s has remained unchanged on the day at -145GWh on the same day.
  • Precipitation in the Nordics is forecast to flip above normal on 8 October at around 3.68mm compared to 2.88mm for the same day. Rainfall is expected to reach as high as 10.04mm on 9 Oct – supporting hydro stocks.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecast suggested mean temperatures in the Nordics will reach as high as 10-11.1C over 9-11 Oct compared to the norm of around 8C for the same period – possibly limiting heating demand.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear availability edged down to 74% of capacity as of Friday, down from 75% on Friday, with eight out of eleven reactors online according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.6GW OL3 reactor is expected to be at around 1.49GW of capacity over 09:00-12:15 CET on 4 Oct – upping baseload generation.
  • The 890MW OL2 and 507 Loviisa reactors are still expected to return over 5-6 Oct.
  • Wind output in Norway is forecast at 427MW on Saturday (5 Oct) during base load, equivalent to an 8% load factor according to SpotRenewables – which may limit losses caused by a drop in demand on the day.