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POWER: Nordic Curve Falls on Firm Hydro Outlook, Warmer Temps

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is being weighed down by a relatively unchanged hydro balance of Norway’s and Sweden’s on the day. At the same time, German power and TTF losses is adding further downward pressure. Average temperatures in the region are still set to rise above seasonal norms on 7 Oct.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 3.4% at 43 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1% at 84.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 63.24 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.2% at 38.17 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has just edged down to end at +148GWh from +319GWh in the previous estimate. It is important to note that the balance is anticipated to be negative over 5-11 Oct – before flipping positive over the remainder of the forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is anticipated to end at +1.64TWh on 17 Oct slightly down compared to +1.70TWh in the previous forecast for the same day. But Finland’s is still expected to be negative – more so than previously.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves edged down by just 0.1 percentage point in week 39, with stocks at 81.1% of capacity, or 102.96TWh amid higher demand in the region, however, strong rainfall kept the drawdown limited.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will flip above the 30-year norm starting from 7 Oct with temps between 7.44-11.11C over 7-12 Oct Sept compared to the norm of around 7.6-8.6C over the same period.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 75% capacity on Thursday, unchanged on the day, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 nuclear unit is still expected to return on 6 Oct, with the Loviisa back online on 5 Oct, latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 11% load factor, or 0.599GW on 4 Oct September –  down on the day – which could lift up delivery costs from the previous session. 
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The Nordic forward curve is being weighed down by a relatively unchanged hydro balance of Norway’s and Sweden’s on the day. At the same time, German power and TTF losses is adding further downward pressure. Average temperatures in the region are still set to rise above seasonal norms on 7 Oct.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 3.4% at 43 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1% at 84.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 63.24 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.2% at 38.17 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has just edged down to end at +148GWh from +319GWh in the previous estimate. It is important to note that the balance is anticipated to be negative over 5-11 Oct – before flipping positive over the remainder of the forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is anticipated to end at +1.64TWh on 17 Oct slightly down compared to +1.70TWh in the previous forecast for the same day. But Finland’s is still expected to be negative – more so than previously.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves edged down by just 0.1 percentage point in week 39, with stocks at 81.1% of capacity, or 102.96TWh amid higher demand in the region, however, strong rainfall kept the drawdown limited.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will flip above the 30-year norm starting from 7 Oct with temps between 7.44-11.11C over 7-12 Oct Sept compared to the norm of around 7.6-8.6C over the same period.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 75% capacity on Thursday, unchanged on the day, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 nuclear unit is still expected to return on 6 Oct, with the Loviisa back online on 5 Oct, latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 11% load factor, or 0.599GW on 4 Oct September –  down on the day – which could lift up delivery costs from the previous session.