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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Trades in Red on EU Power, Gas

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory as European gas and emissions costs weigh on neighbouring EU power markets, dropping domestic prices, while temperatures will flip back above norms. However, Norway and Sweden’s hydro balance was revised lower on the day, while the return of the 507MW Loviisa unit 1 and 1.17GW Forsmark 3 have been – which may lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 3.5% at 44.4 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0.3% at 73.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 87.39 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 61.03 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.1% at 40.525 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down further for all days over the 14-21 Oct, with the biggest revision seen over 16-17 Oct at around -600 GWh/day, with the balance expected to end at +653GWh on 21 Oct compared to 772GWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance has also been lowered and is now anticipated at +2.3TWh on 21 Oct from 2.71TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be above the 30-year norm until 11 Oct and will flip below over 12-14 Oct before being back above over 15-16 Oct, ECMWF Shows.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 80% capacity on Monday, up from 74% on Friday, with now 9 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 is back online but will run at limited capacity until late May 2025 due to “rotor limitations.”
  • But the Loviisa 1 reactor is now expected to return on 12 Oct amid a “technical fault in the control rod.” Once powered up full capacity can be reached in 53 hours.
  • And the Vattenfall’s 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 outage has been extended by around 2-months to 16 December from 28 Oct due to “additional work,” latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 1.46GW on 8 Oct down by around 500MW on the day – which could lift power prices from the previous session, however, gains could be limited amid firm nuclear availability.
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The Nordic forward curve is in red territory as European gas and emissions costs weigh on neighbouring EU power markets, dropping domestic prices, while temperatures will flip back above norms. However, Norway and Sweden’s hydro balance was revised lower on the day, while the return of the 507MW Loviisa unit 1 and 1.17GW Forsmark 3 have been – which may lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 down 3.5% at 44.4 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power NOV 24 down 0.3% at 73.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 0.7% at 87.39 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 1.6% at 61.03 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.1% at 40.525 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down further for all days over the 14-21 Oct, with the biggest revision seen over 16-17 Oct at around -600 GWh/day, with the balance expected to end at +653GWh on 21 Oct compared to 772GWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance has also been lowered and is now anticipated at +2.3TWh on 21 Oct from 2.71TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be above the 30-year norm until 11 Oct and will flip below over 12-14 Oct before being back above over 15-16 Oct, ECMWF Shows.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 80% capacity on Monday, up from 74% on Friday, with now 9 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 is back online but will run at limited capacity until late May 2025 due to “rotor limitations.”
  • But the Loviisa 1 reactor is now expected to return on 12 Oct amid a “technical fault in the control rod.” Once powered up full capacity can be reached in 53 hours.
  • And the Vattenfall’s 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 outage has been extended by around 2-months to 16 December from 28 Oct due to “additional work,” latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated at 1.46GW on 8 Oct down by around 500MW on the day – which could lift power prices from the previous session, however, gains could be limited amid firm nuclear availability.