CANADA OCT JOBS +14.5K VS FORECAST +25K, PRIOR +46.7K

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Support Credit In Key Sectors: Q3 Report

MNI BRIEF: China To Prohibit New Hidden Debt -Finance Ministry

MNI BRIEF: China Unveils CNY6 Trl Limit For Hidden Debt

MNI BRIEF: CBRT Raises Medium-Term Inflation Forecast

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Countercyclical Effort - Minister

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: NE, UK, DE Auction on Tuesday

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY NOV INDEX 73.0

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

POWER: Nordic Front-Quarter, Front-Year Fall on Wetter Outlook

POWER
BulletPower BulletsEnergy BulletsCommodities

The Nordic front quarter and front year contracts flipped negatively – after having been slightly up on the day at around 7:40BST due to a rise in TTF, supporting neighbouring EU power markets. However, the contracts were weighed down by Sweden's hydro balance doubling and the forecast for Norway’s balance to be less negative than previously anticipated.

  • Nordic Base Power Q125 down 1% at 57.2 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.3% at 88.44 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 3% at 64.27 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.4% at 39.435 EUR/MWh
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is now expected to end at +1.02TWh on 16 Oct compared to +569GWh for the same day in the previous forecasts.
  • Norway’s will flip negative on 16 Oct from 15 Oct but will be at -38GWh compared to -102GWh in the previous estimation.
  • The return of the 890MW OL2 and 507MW Loviisa reactors are still anticipated over 6-5 Oct – which is likely to raise baseload generation in the region and could support hydro stocks.
  • Average temps in the Nordic will begin warming from 6 Oct and reach as high as 16C on 11 Oct – well above the 30-year norm of about 12C for the same day. Max temps are seen reaching close to 20C over 10-11C – likely keeping heating demand limited.
  • Precipitation in the region will also be above the norm over 7-11 Oct at between 3.9-6.42mm compared to the seasonal avg of about 2.3mm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 75% capacity on Wednesday, up from 74% in the previous session, with still 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.04GW Forsmark 1 unit has had its capacity curtailed by just 26MW unexpectedly due to fuel damage, latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated 1.02GW on 3 Oct up compared to the previous day. However, wind will halve on 4 Oct at 0.516GW – likely supporting delivery costs.
312 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The Nordic front quarter and front year contracts flipped negatively – after having been slightly up on the day at around 7:40BST due to a rise in TTF, supporting neighbouring EU power markets. However, the contracts were weighed down by Sweden's hydro balance doubling and the forecast for Norway’s balance to be less negative than previously anticipated.

  • Nordic Base Power Q125 down 1% at 57.2 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 0.3% at 88.44 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 3% at 64.27 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 up 0.4% at 39.435 EUR/MWh
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is now expected to end at +1.02TWh on 16 Oct compared to +569GWh for the same day in the previous forecasts.
  • Norway’s will flip negative on 16 Oct from 15 Oct but will be at -38GWh compared to -102GWh in the previous estimation.
  • The return of the 890MW OL2 and 507MW Loviisa reactors are still anticipated over 6-5 Oct – which is likely to raise baseload generation in the region and could support hydro stocks.
  • Average temps in the Nordic will begin warming from 6 Oct and reach as high as 16C on 11 Oct – well above the 30-year norm of about 12C for the same day. Max temps are seen reaching close to 20C over 10-11C – likely keeping heating demand limited.
  • Precipitation in the region will also be above the norm over 7-11 Oct at between 3.9-6.42mm compared to the seasonal avg of about 2.3mm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 75% capacity on Wednesday, up from 74% in the previous session, with still 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.04GW Forsmark 1 unit has had its capacity curtailed by just 26MW unexpectedly due to fuel damage, latest Remit data show.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated 1.02GW on 3 Oct up compared to the previous day. However, wind will halve on 4 Oct at 0.516GW – likely supporting delivery costs.