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POWER: Nordic Front-Quarter Moves Down

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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading down as Norway’s hydro balance was revised up slightly, with Sweden’s hydro outlook firm on the day. The contract is tracking a weekly net decline, with similar losses in the German power market. 

  • Nordic Base Power Q125 down 0.4% at 57.85 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.5% at 88.1 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 24 down 0.6% at 64.62 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.2% at 39.8 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up over 22-25 October and will remain strong towards the end of the month, reaching +1.37TWh on 25 Oct. It is important to note that the balance will be negative over 14-17 Oct before flipping back positive.
  • Sweden’s balance will be at +1.54TWh on 25 Oct – remaining firm from the previous forecasts of +1.57TWh on the same day.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the 30-year norm of around 2.8mm throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts – which could pressure hydro stocks. 
  • Sweden’s 130MW curtailment at its 504MW Vartan biomass unit will still be offline until 11 Oct due to unplanned failure at the unit aid steam valve issues, latest Remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 28% load factor, or 1.45GW on 12 Oct – which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 85% of capacity on Friday, up from 82% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading down as Norway’s hydro balance was revised up slightly, with Sweden’s hydro outlook firm on the day. The contract is tracking a weekly net decline, with similar losses in the German power market. 

  • Nordic Base Power Q125 down 0.4% at 57.85 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 1.5% at 88.1 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 24 down 0.6% at 64.62 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1.2% at 39.8 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up over 22-25 October and will remain strong towards the end of the month, reaching +1.37TWh on 25 Oct. It is important to note that the balance will be negative over 14-17 Oct before flipping back positive.
  • Sweden’s balance will be at +1.54TWh on 25 Oct – remaining firm from the previous forecasts of +1.57TWh on the same day.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the 30-year norm of around 2.8mm throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts – which could pressure hydro stocks. 
  • Sweden’s 130MW curtailment at its 504MW Vartan biomass unit will still be offline until 11 Oct due to unplanned failure at the unit aid steam valve issues, latest Remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 28% load factor, or 1.45GW on 12 Oct – which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 85% of capacity on Friday, up from 82% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.