POWER: Nordic Front-Quarter Moves Up

The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading up as Norway’s hydro balance was revised slightly, with gains in German power from rising gas and EU ETS adding support.

• Nordic Base Power Q4 up 3.1% at 36.3 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 2% at 83.54 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.1% at 66.96 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.2% at 36.99 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from 16 to 20 September; however, the balance will remain strong towards the end of the month, reaching 3.1TWh on 20 September.
• Rainfall in the Nordics is expected to rise above the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm on 8 September before falling to dip below over 12-14 September.
• Sweden’s Arise has started construction of its 277MW Kolvallen onshore wind farm, with the unit anticipated to gradually increase capacity until fully commissioned on 26 March 2025.
• The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 10-16% load factors, or 0.546-0840GW over 7-8 September– which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to rise over 9-10 September at 19-23% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs – however with rising demand prices could still be supported.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% of capacity on Friday, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.