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POWER: Nordic Front-Quarter Moves Up

POWER
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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading up as Norway’s hydro balance was revised slightly, with gains in German power from rising gas and EU ETS adding support.

  • Nordic Base Power Q4 up 3.1% at 36.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 2% at 83.54 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.1% at 66.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.2% at 36.99 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from 16 to 20 September; however, the balance will remain strong towards the end of the month, reaching 3.1TWh on 20 September.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics is expected to rise above the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm on 8 September before falling to dip below over 12-14 September.
  • Sweden’s Arise has started construction of its 277MW Kolvallen onshore wind farm, with the unit anticipated to gradually increase capacity until fully commissioned on 26 March 2025.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 10-16% load factors, or 0.546-0840GW over 7-8 September– which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to rise over 9-10 September at 19-23% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs – however with rising demand prices could still be supported.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% of capacity on Friday, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.
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The Nordic front quarter baseload power contract is trading up as Norway’s hydro balance was revised slightly, with gains in German power from rising gas and EU ETS adding support.

  • Nordic Base Power Q4 up 3.1% at 36.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 2% at 83.54 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.1% at 66.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.2% at 36.99 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from 16 to 20 September; however, the balance will remain strong towards the end of the month, reaching 3.1TWh on 20 September.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics is expected to rise above the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm on 8 September before falling to dip below over 12-14 September.
  • Sweden’s Arise has started construction of its 277MW Kolvallen onshore wind farm, with the unit anticipated to gradually increase capacity until fully commissioned on 26 March 2025.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to be the only nuclear plant fully disconnected in the quarter due to works over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 10-16% load factors, or 0.546-0840GW over 7-8 September– which could weigh down power prices on delivery coupled with lower weekend demand. Wind is then expected to rise over 9-10 September at 19-23% load factors – likely keeping downward pressures on delivery costs – however with rising demand prices could still be supported.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% of capacity on Friday, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.