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POWER: Nordic Front Quarter Rising On Drier Outlook

POWER
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The Nordic front quarter is up from the previous session amid a sharp downward revision of both Sweden's and Norway's hydrological balance. Gains in German power amid rising TTF and EU ETS lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 0.2% at 23 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.6% at 75.42 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.7% at 64.46 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.8% at 35.425 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance has been sharply revised down over 26 Sept-7 Oct, with the balance expected to end at +1.26TWh on 7 Oct from the previous forecasts of +2TWh on the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance is following a similar trend and is now expected to end at +1.35TWh on 7 Oct compared to 1.64TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation in the region to be above norm on 24-28 to reach as high as 7.2mm on 27 Sep, but will drop below on 29 Sept until at least 2 Oct.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.794GW on 24 Sept – up from the 0.448GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs. Wind over 30 Sept-2 Oct is anticipated at 0.645-1.12GW.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 72% capacity on Monday morning, unchanged from Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The OL2 nuclear unit and Loviisa plants are still expected to return over 4-6 Oct. 
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The Nordic front quarter is up from the previous session amid a sharp downward revision of both Sweden's and Norway's hydrological balance. Gains in German power amid rising TTF and EU ETS lend some support.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 0.2% at 23 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.6% at 75.42 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 1.7% at 64.46 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.8% at 35.425 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance has been sharply revised down over 26 Sept-7 Oct, with the balance expected to end at +1.26TWh on 7 Oct from the previous forecasts of +2TWh on the same day.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance is following a similar trend and is now expected to end at +1.35TWh on 7 Oct compared to 1.64TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation in the region to be above norm on 24-28 to reach as high as 7.2mm on 27 Sep, but will drop below on 29 Sept until at least 2 Oct.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.794GW on 24 Sept – up from the 0.448GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery costs. Wind over 30 Sept-2 Oct is anticipated at 0.645-1.12GW.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 72% capacity on Monday morning, unchanged from Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • The OL2 nuclear unit and Loviisa plants are still expected to return over 4-6 Oct.