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Nordic hydropower reserves moved down sharply to the lowest since week 34 last week (week 40), with stocks at 79% of capacity, or 85.14TWh as higher demand in the region and lower rainfall extended the drawdown.
Stocks decreased by 2.1 percentage points compared to just 0.1-point loss the week prior. This is the largest drawdown of stocks since week 12 of this year.
Precipitation in the Nordic region fell sharply on the week totalling just 8.09mm compared to week 39, which totalled 46.36mm. This is also below the 30-year norm of about 20.2mm.
Higher demand on the week also weighed on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging 14.84GW compared to 14.50GW in week 39. Swedish demand averaged 14.3GW sharply up from 13.1GW in the previous week.
Reservoir levels widened their on-year deficit to 5.5 points from 2.8 points in week 39 and just a 0.8-point loss in week 38.
The deficit to the 19-year average widened to 5.9 points from 3 points in week 39.
Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 71.6% of capacity from 80%, with Norwegian reserves falling to 81.5% from 82.8% in week 39.
And Finnish hydro stocks continued to descend, dropping to 59% of capacity from 60.6% the week prior and lower than 76.5% recorded for the same week last year.
Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +303GWh and +1.70TWh, respectively, on 24 Oct compared to -152GWh and +605GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
And the latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to drop below the seasonal norm from 11 Oct – which may limit stocks.
But the 890MW OL2 nuclear reactor has returned to the grid, with the 507MW Loviisa back online also.
But Sweden’s 1.2GW Forsmark 3 is now expected to return on 12 Dec, while TVO has reduced output at the 1.6GW OL3 reactor on Wednesday due to a technical problem.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Nordic hydropower reserves moved down sharply to the lowest since week 34 last week (week 40), with stocks at 79% of capacity, or 85.14TWh as higher demand in the region and lower rainfall extended the drawdown.
Stocks decreased by 2.1 percentage points compared to just 0.1-point loss the week prior. This is the largest drawdown of stocks since week 12 of this year.
Precipitation in the Nordic region fell sharply on the week totalling just 8.09mm compared to week 39, which totalled 46.36mm. This is also below the 30-year norm of about 20.2mm.
Higher demand on the week also weighed on stocks, with Norwegian demand averaging 14.84GW compared to 14.50GW in week 39. Swedish demand averaged 14.3GW sharply up from 13.1GW in the previous week.
Reservoir levels widened their on-year deficit to 5.5 points from 2.8 points in week 39 and just a 0.8-point loss in week 38.
The deficit to the 19-year average widened to 5.9 points from 3 points in week 39.
Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 71.6% of capacity from 80%, with Norwegian reserves falling to 81.5% from 82.8% in week 39.
And Finnish hydro stocks continued to descend, dropping to 59% of capacity from 60.6% the week prior and lower than 76.5% recorded for the same week last year.
Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +303GWh and +1.70TWh, respectively, on 24 Oct compared to -152GWh and +605GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
And the latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to drop below the seasonal norm from 11 Oct – which may limit stocks.
But the 890MW OL2 nuclear reactor has returned to the grid, with the 507MW Loviisa back online also.
But Sweden’s 1.2GW Forsmark 3 is now expected to return on 12 Dec, while TVO has reduced output at the 1.6GW OL3 reactor on Wednesday due to a technical problem.
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