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POWER: Nordic Hydro Stocks Flip Back to On-Year Surplus

POWER

Nordic hydropower reserves quickened the pace of their rise in week 34 to have the largest WoW gain since week 25 of this year and be at 78.4% of capacity, or 99.50TWh, with stocks flipping to a surplus for the same week in 2023.

  • Stocks increased by 2.5 percentage points compared to a 1-point gain the week prior.
  • Reservoir levels flipped to a 0.3-point surplus from a 1.8-point deficit in week 33 – ending the two-week deficit trend.
  • And the deficit to the 19-year average narrowed to 3.4 points from 5.9 points in week 33 – the lowest deficit since week 27.
  • Finnish hydro stocks continued to descend to drop to 64.4% of capacity to remain at a deficit to the same week in 2023.
  • Norwegian and Swedish reserves climbed to 79.8% and 76.9%, respectively, from 76.9% and 74.4% the week prior.
  • Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests the hydrological balance across Norway has been slightly revised up over 28 August-11 September – which could support hydro levels.
  • But precipitation in the Nordics will be mostly below the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm over 29 August- 6 September.
  • And the 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 is still offline until 13 September, with the 500MW Loviisa unit 1 offline from 31 August-30 September – possibly weighing on stocks.


     

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