POWER: Nordic Hydro Stocks Reach 80% of Capacity for First Time

Nordic hydropower reserves moved up at a slower speed in week 35 on the week, with stocks at 80.1% of capacity, or 101.73TWh – the first time this year –, while stocks remained at a surplus for the same week in 2023.

• Stocks increased by 1.7 percentage points compared to a 2.5-point gain the week prior and a 1-point rise in week 33.
• Reservoir levels widened to a 2.3-point surplus on the year from 0.3-points in week 34 and a 1.8-point deficit in week 33.
• And the deficit to the 19-year average narrowed to its lowest since week 26 at just 1.6 points from 3.5 points in week 34.
• Finnish hydro stocks descended for 11th consecutive week to drop to 64.1% of capacity – edging down from 64.4% - and continued to be at a deficit to the same week in 2023.
• Norwegian and Swedish reserves climbed to 81.8% and 78.5%, respectively, from 79.9% and 76.9% the week prior. This is also up on the year.
• Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests the hydrological balance across Norway is relatively unchanged on the day over 4-8 September but has been revised up sharply over 9-17 September.
• However, precipitation in the Nordics will be mostly below the 30-year norm of around 2.5mm over most days throughout the 6-10 day forecast period – flipping above slightly from 10 Sept.
• The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 is still offline until 13 September, with the 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 disconnected until 18 October.
• The Nordic October has extended losses from the morning amid a stronger hydro balance and increases in Nordic reservoir levels.

• Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 15.2% at 19.25 EUR/MWh