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POWER: Nordic Nov Could Track Losses in TTF, German Power

POWER
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The Nordic November may track lower – once it becomes liquid – as Sweden’s and Norway's hydro balance has been slightly revised up on the day, however, with Norway still anticipated to be negative into mid-Oct losses could be limited. German power and TTF provide additional weight.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 closed up 3.4% at 45.4 EUR/MWh on 30 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 2.9% at 87 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 65.2 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 2.1% at 38.215 EUR/MWh
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been slightly revised down over 2-12 Oct, however, the balance is still expected to end at about 165GWh higher on 15 Oct at +659GWh compared to +496GWh in the previous session.
  • Norway’s balance is expected to still end negative, although much less than previously anticipated at -44GWh on 15 Oct compared to -233GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Limited rainfall is expected in the Nordics, with precipitation below the norm for the majority of the 6–10-day ECMWF forecast. But Rainfall is expected to flip above on 9 October.
  • And no notable drops in nuclear capacity in Sweden and Finland are anticipated, with new works at plants not planned over the month – keeping baseload generation firm.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be below the 30-year norm starting until 6 Sept, with temps then flipping above over 7-10 Oct at between 9.2-11.5C. Minimum temps are seen in line with the norm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% capacity on Tuesday, up from 72% on Monday, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 nuclear unit is still expected to return on 6 Oct, with the Loviisa back online on 5 Oct, latest Remit data show. The Forsmark 3 will be back on 28 Oct.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated 0.958GW on 2 Oct down from around 2.02GW on 1 Oct – which could support delivery costs. Wind is then anticipated at 1.30GW the next – likely putting weight on day-ahead prices. 
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The Nordic November may track lower – once it becomes liquid – as Sweden’s and Norway's hydro balance has been slightly revised up on the day, however, with Norway still anticipated to be negative into mid-Oct losses could be limited. German power and TTF provide additional weight.

  • Nordic Base Power NOV 24 closed up 3.4% at 45.4 EUR/MWh on 30 Sept.
  • Germany Base Power NOV 24 down 2.9% at 87 EUR/MWh
  • EUA MAR 25 down 1.6% at 65.2 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 2.1% at 38.215 EUR/MWh
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has been slightly revised down over 2-12 Oct, however, the balance is still expected to end at about 165GWh higher on 15 Oct at +659GWh compared to +496GWh in the previous session.
  • Norway’s balance is expected to still end negative, although much less than previously anticipated at -44GWh on 15 Oct compared to -233GWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.
  • Limited rainfall is expected in the Nordics, with precipitation below the norm for the majority of the 6–10-day ECMWF forecast. But Rainfall is expected to flip above on 9 October.
  • And no notable drops in nuclear capacity in Sweden and Finland are anticipated, with new works at plants not planned over the month – keeping baseload generation firm.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics will be below the 30-year norm starting until 6 Sept, with temps then flipping above over 7-10 Oct at between 9.2-11.5C. Minimum temps are seen in line with the norm.
  • Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 74% capacity on Tuesday, up from 72% on Monday, with 8 of 11 units still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 890MW OL2 nuclear unit is still expected to return on 6 Oct, with the Loviisa back online on 5 Oct, latest Remit data show. The Forsmark 3 will be back on 28 Oct.
  • Norwegian wind is anticipated 0.958GW on 2 Oct down from around 2.02GW on 1 Oct – which could support delivery costs. Wind is then anticipated at 1.30GW the next – likely putting weight on day-ahead prices.