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POWER: Nordic Oct Leads Losses on Wetter Outlook

POWER
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Nordic October has collapsed from the previous session to fall to a two-session low – when comparing settlement prices – to resist increases in TTF and German power amid a much wetter outlook in the Nordics.  However, temperatures are still anticipated to drop below seasonal averages early next week – possibly spurring cooling demand.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 4.8% at 24.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.7% at 77.31 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.5% at 64.17 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.4% at 36.255 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance has been sharply revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +2.31TWh on 9 Oct compared to +1.38TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance is also expected to end higher at +1TWh on 9 Oct compared to +0.665TWh in the previous forecasts. However, Finland will end further negative at -227GWh compared to -198GWh on the same day.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to reach 6.14mm tomorrow to later reach as high as 9.4mm on 27 Sept – up compared to the norm of just 2.7mm.
  • But average temperatures are seen dropping as low as 8C on 29 Sept compared to the seasonal norm of 10C, with temperatures below until 3 Oct.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.930GW on 26 Sept – remaining firm on the day – with dropping the next day – which could support prices.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 72% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day.
  • The  1.12GW Forsmark unit 2 has been gradually ramping up power from midnight, latest Remit data show.
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Nordic October has collapsed from the previous session to fall to a two-session low – when comparing settlement prices – to resist increases in TTF and German power amid a much wetter outlook in the Nordics.  However, temperatures are still anticipated to drop below seasonal averages early next week – possibly spurring cooling demand.

  • Nordic Base Power OCT 24 down 4.8% at 24.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 1.7% at 77.31 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.5% at 64.17 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 2.4% at 36.255 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance has been sharply revised up throughout the 6–10-day ECMWF forecasts, with the balance ending at +2.31TWh on 9 Oct compared to +1.38TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s hydrological balance is also expected to end higher at +1TWh on 9 Oct compared to +0.665TWh in the previous forecasts. However, Finland will end further negative at -227GWh compared to -198GWh on the same day.
  • The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to reach 6.14mm tomorrow to later reach as high as 9.4mm on 27 Sept – up compared to the norm of just 2.7mm.
  • But average temperatures are seen dropping as low as 8C on 29 Sept compared to the seasonal norm of 10C, with temperatures below until 3 Oct.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.930GW on 26 Sept – remaining firm on the day – with dropping the next day – which could support prices.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 72% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day.
  • The  1.12GW Forsmark unit 2 has been gradually ramping up power from midnight, latest Remit data show.