POWER: Nordic October Rises on Drier Outlook, Gas

The Nordic October contract is extending gains on the Nordic future curve pressured by a downward revision to Norway’s hydro balance – raising supply risks into the 4Q24, with price increases in Germany due to rising EU gas prices adding additional support.

• Nordic Base Power OCT 24 up 1.35% at 41.40 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 1.6% at 91.73 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 71.8 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 1.6% at 39.3 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised down from 30 August-11 September, with the largest revision on 31 August at -248GWh. The balance is anticipated to end at +1.66TWh on 11 September compared to the 10-day forecast high of +3.78TWh on 30 August
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 26% load factor, or 1.37GW on 29 August - which could weigh on power prices on delivery. Wind is then expected at a 20% load factor the next day – likely keeping downward pressures prices.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 81% of capacity on Wednesday, up from 77% on the previous day, with 10 of 11 units still online.
• But the 507MW Loviisa unit 2 will have unexpectedly had its capacity curtailed by 253MW due to issues with the 2nd generator connecting to the grid. The unit will be offline on 28 August over 02:15-14:00 CET.