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POWER: Nordic Power Price to Surpass Germany by 2030 Without New Investment

POWER

Nordic power price may rise above the Germany market by 2030 if investment in new power generation capacity is not picking up, Volue’s chief analyst Tor Reier Lilleholt said, cited by Montel. 

  • Norwegian power prices are forecast to rise as growth in demand is outpacing growth in supply in second half of this decade, which could turn Norway into a net power importer, Lilleholt said.
  • Annual Norwegian power demand is expected to rise by 32TWh by 2030, while production is estimated to rise by around 10 TWh, he added.
  • “Power prices in Germany and Great Britain, if they are successful with their offshore wind investments, may be lower than in the Nordics as early as 2030,” Lilleholt said.
  • Volue expects the average Nordic system price at €57.50/MWh by 2030, compared with an average of €39/MWh so far this year.
  • Norwegian bidding zones are expected to see an average spot prices of €58-59/MWh in 2030, up from current average levels of below €50/MWh in the NO2 bidding zone and €29/MWh in the NO4 zone.
  • Volue forecasts German day-ahead power prices to decline to €52/MWh by 2030, down from €72/MWh s far this year, due to increases in renewables output.
  • UK day-ahead power prices are forecast to average €53/MWh by 2030, compared with €77/MWh so far this year. 
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