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PPI Inflation Rises to 9.3% in August

CZECHIA
  • Today (11.30 London time), Prime Minister Andrej Babis and Health Minister Adam Vojtechare scheduled to speak at a conference on the impact of coronavirus pandemic on the health-care sector and its financing (BBG).
  • This morning, economic data showed that Czech PPI inflation rose by 9.3% YoY in August (vs. 8.7% exp.), up from 7.8% the previous month.
  • Forward rates keep rising following recent policymakers 'hawkish' tone, with the FRA 3Mx6M and the 4Mx7M currently trading 91bps and 120bps above the Pribor 3M.
  • CNB Governor Rusnok recently said that he 'cannot rule out' a bigger than 25bps hike in the coming meeting if the central bank's new inflation forecast indicates that such move is needed.
  • This week, CNB board Benda member also confirmed that the CNB should accelerate its monetary policy tightening campaign as the central bank should prevent the significant rise in CPI inflation from increasing LT inflation expectations.
  • Hence, odds for a 50bps hike at the next CNB meeting (September 30) have been surging following the positive surprise in inflation last week (CPI inflation rose to 4.1% in August vs. 3.6% expected).
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