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PPI Oct Contraction Masks Further Core Uptick

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE OCT PPI -2.9% M/M (FCST -2.0%); SEP +1.6% M/M

EUROZONE OCT PPI +30.8% Y/Y (FCST 31.7%); SEP +41.9% Y/Y

  • Factory-gate inflation cooled more than anticipated in the October data, contracting by -3.9% m/m in a significant turn-around from +1.6% m/m recorded in September.
  • The annualised PPI rate slowed by over 11pp to +30.8% y/y, distancing further from the August peak.
  • Falling energy-sector prices drove the decline, down -6.9% m/m alone.
  • Yet the October print should be taken with only cautious optimism. Core PPI showed no relief; ex-energy PPI was up +0.5% m/m.
  • Volatile Irish data will have also skewed the print to the downside, implying that factory-gate inflation was less improved than the headline figure suggests. However, the fall in energy prices is a step in the right direction, and signals an imrpovement in outlooks for the energy-intensive industrial sector.

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