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Presidential Debate Sees Paring Of Thursday Gains, PCE In Focus

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are lower across the curve having sold-off during the Presidential debate, paring some of yesterday’s data-induced gains.
  • Today’s PCE report is firmly in focus (see our preview here), whilst the MNI Chicago PMI offers a useful update on the manufacturing sector ahead of Monday’s ISM mfg release.
  • Cash yields sit 1.2-2.6bp higher, with 2s10s at -41.5bps (+1bp) holding the week’s bear steepening off ytd lows of -50.8bps.
  • TYU4 trades at 110-4 (- 04) on solid cumulative volumes of 335k although with the pace slowing more recently.
  • Yesterday’s low of 109-27+ stopped just short of support at 109-26+ (50-day EMA) in a test of the bull cycle. A further move lower could open a key support at 109-00+ (Jun 10 low) whilst resistance is seen at 110-25 (Jun 14 high).
  • Data: PCE May (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Jun (0945ET), U.Mich Consumer Survey Jun final (1000ET), KC Fed services Jun (1100ET).
  • Fedspeak: Daly on CNBC (0840ET), Bowman Q&A (1200ET), Daly AI discussion (1240ET).
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