Presidential Run-Off Underway, Outcome On A Knife-Edge

Iran's presidential run-off is underway, with reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian up against conservative hardliner Saeed Jalili. Turnout in the 28 June first round came in at a record low of 39.9%, down from 48.4% in 2021 and 73.3% in 2017, reflecting widespread voter disatissfaction with the country's economic situation but also the nature of the religious establishment led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in charge of the country.

• Polling stations are due to close at 1800 local time (1030ET, 1530BST) but can remain open until 0000 local time (1630ET, 2130BST) at the latest.
• The election is seen as being on a knife-edge. Pezeshkian won 44.4% of the vote in the first round to Jalili's 40.4%. Third-placed candidate Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the incumbent speaker of parliament and another conservative hardliner, won 14.4%. He has urged his supporters to back Jalili, but as Bloomberg notes, "several newspapers in Iran speculated his supporters are in fact split — with a fair number more likely to back Pezeshkian out of fear that Jalili’s policies would be bad for the economy and further isolate Iran."
• The election of a reformist following three years under a conservative hardliner, the late Ebrahim Raisi, could raise hopes in the West of a revial of the nuclear deal (JCPoA). However, this depends on two things: the identity of the next US president (Donald Trump unlikely to come back to the table) and the Supreme Leader, who remains the primary director of Iranian policy rather than the president.